A new book is out by the journalist Tom Chivers, author of The Rationalist’s Guide to the Galaxy and How to Read Numbers. The Wall Street Journal likes it. Kirkus Reviews calls it “An ingenious introduction to the mathematics of rational thinking.” Oliver Burkeman wrote, “Life is shot through with uncertainty, but in this fascinating,…
Category: Polls
The Economist Succumbs to the Cult of Prediction…Again
The Economist’s annual preview of the coming year once again includes predictions. And that is a problem. To show you why it was a problem for 2023, let me share some slides I presented recently to the Intelligence Leadership Forum. The tl;dr version: Things that can be predicted with certainty are almost never strategic;…
Horserace Episode 3.5: Pundit Whiplash/Pigheadedness Edition
November 9, 2023Yesterday, Democrats nearly swept the table in an off-year election, easily passing a referendum in red-state Ohio enshrining the right to abortion, easily re-electing a Democratic governor in Kentucky, and sweeping into the majority in both houses of the Virginia legislature. None of these things were predictable; all…
Horserace Episode 3: Forecasting Follies
November 7, 2023 Nate Silver, the other day, tweeted (or “Xed?”) that the Democratic Party should be very very worried. “You have the whole electorate basically screaming ‘BIDEN’S TOO OLD.’ There’s a year’s worth of campaign to go, very likely some reversion to the fundamentals, Trump’s legal issues probably a larger liability…
Polling and Prediction in 2023
September 25, 2023 Political polls are often presented to the public as omens about what will happen in future elections. But polls do not work the way they used to. In the past, a high approval rating – say, Bill Clinton’s, which exceeded 60% after the end of his impeachment…
The Horserace, Episode 2: Our Inadequate Media and Election 2024
August 28, 2023 Let’s say you are planning an event in a year’s time. Say it is a family reunion. A year from now will be toward the end of summer (if you are in the Northern Hemisphere, as I am not, as it happens). So you need to make…
Hate to Say We Told You So…
[Reposted with permission from the Futures Strategy Group website… a blog column that contains the germ of Fatal Certainty. https://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/strategy/scenarios/ ] November 16, 2016 A week ago, something happened that no one was prepared for – and I mean NO ONE. Donald Trump was elected president. When I say “no one,” I include…
The Horserace Begins: Episode 1
The polling follies that will halt serious thought about the 2024 election have already begun August 2, 2023 In 2016, I wrote a couple of blog posts about the pernicious impact of polling on the functioning of American democracy. One (“Hate to Say We Told You So…”) is re-posted on this…