For the past 101 days, since Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race and was replaced by Kamala Harris, news outlets have been obsessing about “the polls.” For a while before that, there was a brief period in which slogans like “the stakes, not the horse race” were a…
Category: Uncategorized
Forecasting
Presentation to the Institute for the Study of Business Markets, Pennsylvania State University
I gave this talk a few months ago, and it captures a lot of my shtick on “fatal certainty,” “the cult of prediction,” and the importance of rigorous imagination in strategic decision-making. Enjoy… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxzth2cJICQ
ISBM 2024 Academic Conference Presentation
I am honored and happy to be presenting some of the ideas from my forthcoming book, “Fatal Certainty,” this afternoon at the 2024 Joint Academic Conference & Members Meeting, “Foresight in B2B: the Next 40 Years in B2B Marketing,” at the Institute for the Study of Business Markets at the…
Rigorous Imagination
Dead Certain: Presentation to the Intelligence Leadership Forum
Many thanks to Dr. Liam Fahey for the recent opportunity to present some of my ideas to his topflight group of strategy and intelligence executives in the Intelligence Leadership Forum. The Cult of Prediction has some fairly ancient roots, and rigorous imagination requires the abandonment of some familiar and profitable…