September 25, 2023 Political polls are often presented to the public as omens about what will happen in future elections. But polls do not work the way they used to. In the past, a high approval rating – say, Bill Clinton’s, which exceeded 60% after the end of his impeachment…
Category: Polls
Forecasting
The Horserace, Episode 2: Our Inadequate Media and Election 2024
August 28, 2023 Let’s say you are planning an event in a year’s time. Say it is a family reunion. A year from now will be toward the end of summer (if you are in the Northern Hemisphere, as I am not, as it happens). So you need to make…
Algorithms
Hate to Say We Told You So…
[Reposted with permission from the Futures Strategy Group website… a blog column that contains the germ of Fatal Certainty. https://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/strategy/scenarios/ ] November 16, 2016 A week ago, something happened that no one was prepared for – and I mean NO ONE. Donald Trump was elected president. When I say “no one,” I include…
Algorithms
The Horserace Begins: Episode 1
The polling follies that will halt serious thought about the 2024 election have already begun August 2, 2023 In 2016, I wrote a couple of blog posts about the pernicious impact of polling on the functioning of American democracy. One (“Hate to Say We Told You So…”) is re-posted on this…