For a more general treatment of On the Edge, go here:
https://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/nate-silver-on-the-edge/
SCA 6: Review of Nate Silver’s On the Edge on the Futures Strategy Group Blog
SCA 8: Thanks to Dr. J. Bradford DeLong…
CROSSPOST: Patrick Marren on Nate Silver: One & a Half Cheers, Perhaps? Nate Silver’s poll-aggregation work remains very valuable, even though we are trapped by the cult of prediction: polls paralyzing politics by not predicting the future but simply chaining us to uncertainty… Yet one more intelligent word on Nate…
Algorithms
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“The Data Delusion” vs. Rigorous Imagination
July 20, 2023 Jill LePore is a Harvard historian whose wide-ranging scholarship has embraced the broad sweep of American history (These Truths), Native American-colonial conflict (The Name of War), superheroes (The Secret History of Wonder Woman), and even the Beatles (introduction to Paul McCartney’s 1964: Eyes of the Storm). In her…
Algorithms
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The Economics Profession: Still Mostly in Thrall to the Cult of Prediction (with honorable exceptions)
July 25, 2023 A week or so ago, the economist Paul Krugman put out a subscribers-only opinion piece entitled “Camps of economists fought grand theoretical battles, and all lost.” To his credit, he numbers himself among those who “lost” in these battles, which were over the likelihood of serious inflation…