For a more general treatment of On the Edge, go here:
https://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/nate-silver-on-the-edge/
SCA 6: Review of Nate Silver’s On the Edge on the Futures Strategy Group Blog
Forecasting
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The Horserace, Episode 2: Our Inadequate Media and Election 2024
August 28, 2023 Let’s say you are planning an event in a year’s time. Say it is a family reunion. A year from now will be toward the end of summer (if you are in the Northern Hemisphere, as I am not, as it happens). So you need to make…
Forecasting
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Thinking, Fast, Slow… and Other
The psychologist Daniel Kahneman died March 27. He was one of the few thinkers who managed to influence thought in multiple fields, most notably psychology and economics, but also in international relations and many other spheres dependent on decision-making. In 2011, Kahneman published his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, to universal…
Algorithms
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The Uses of Sortilege
October 2, 2023 Another avenue into the big truth expressed by Fatal Certainty: How a Cult of Prediction Made the Twenty-First Century an Era of Strategic Shock – and How Rigorous Imagination Could Bring Us Back comes from ancient approaches to dealing with fundamental, irreducible uncertainty. Decisions need to be made. This…