For a more general treatment of On the Edge, go here:
https://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/nate-silver-on-the-edge/
SCA 6: Review of Nate Silver’s On the Edge on the Futures Strategy Group Blog
Forecasting
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Letter to the Columnist: Effective Altruism
The New York Times’ Peter Coy is “a veteran business and economics columnist.” Today he sent a newsletter out that was headlined “Effective Altruism Is Flawed. But What’s the Alternative?” I have thoughts. Coy writes, Of course, if you’ve read anything I’ve written here, you may sense that “rigorous academic…
ISBM article on my ideas about the “Cult of Prediction”
It was a great honor to share the central themes of my book Fatal Certainty with such an accomplished group of practitioners and academics, exactly the sort of people who can help to change the mindset driving quantitative (and even older-style non-quantitative) single-point forecasting, and it’s even a greater honor…
Forecasting
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Thinking, Fast, Slow… and Other
The psychologist Daniel Kahneman died March 27. He was one of the few thinkers who managed to influence thought in multiple fields, most notably psychology and economics, but also in international relations and many other spheres dependent on decision-making. In 2011, Kahneman published his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, to universal…