Skip to content
Patrick Marren
Patrick Marren

Author

  • Fatal Certainty – Coming Soon
  • Fatal Certainty – The Thesis
  • Blog
  • Biography – Patrick B. Marren
  • Contact & Links
  • Patrick Marren Video Clips
Patrick Marren

Author

bare tree under starry sky during night time

Dead Certain: Presentation to the Intelligence Leadership Forum

admin, November 30, 2023November 30, 2023

Many thanks to Dr. Liam Fahey for the recent opportunity to present some of my ideas to his topflight group of strategy and intelligence executives in the Intelligence Leadership Forum. The Cult of Prediction has some fairly ancient roots, and rigorous imagination requires the abandonment of some familiar and profitable (if useless) approaches. Why we stink at rigorous imagination now, and why we need to get better…

Youtube link here.

Rigorous Imagination The Cult of Prediction Uncategorized

Post navigation

Previous post
Next post

Related Posts

Algorithms news on laptop screen

Hate to Say We Told You So…

August 15, 2023August 18, 2023

[Reposted with permission from the Futures Strategy Group website… a blog column that contains the germ of Fatal Certainty.  https://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/strategy/scenarios/ ] November 16, 2016 A week ago, something happened that no one was prepared for – and I mean NO ONE. Donald Trump was elected president. When I say “no one,” I include…

Read More
Algorithms opened book

Fatal Certainty: The Premise

September 19, 2023September 19, 2023

September 20, 2023  Someone just asked me what the premise of my book was, what readers would take away from it. So I typed this up. My premise is that a cult of prediction has turned the 21st century into a series of avoidable shocks – 9/11, the failure of…

Read More
Algorithms picture of a shipwreck underwater

SCA 5: The Wrecks of the Bayesian

September 13, 2024September 13, 2024

A couple of weeks ago, in a terrible accident, the Bayesian, an imposing 184-foot-long sailing yacht topped by a 237-foot mast (one of the tallest in the world), sank, as the result of a sudden and violent storm off the coast of Sicily.  The Bayesian was owned by “the Bill…

Read More
©2026 Patrick Marren | WordPress Theme by SuperbThemes