I gave this talk a few months ago, and it captures a lot of my shtick on “fatal certainty,” “the cult of prediction,” and the importance of rigorous imagination in strategic decision-making. Enjoy…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxzth2cJICQ
August 21, 2023 Imagine a two-by-two matrix containing all major issues regarding the future. (That’s what most people think we consultants do, anyway. Two-by-two matrices.) On the vertical axis, you have predictability, ranging from low to high as you move up the page. On the horizontal axis, you have the…
A lot of what I have said in the past few weeks may give you the idea that I think Nate Silver is a fraud, or at best a non-serious person. Neither of those things is true. I recently have had, let us say, some of my fellow-traveling partisans tell…
October 22, 2023 The Washington Post has an article today about Sam Bankman-Fried, the cryptocurrency mogul who is now awaiting trial on charges of fraud. It starts with the following paragraph: ‘As Sam Bankman-Fried (popularly known as SBF) gets ready to take the stand in his own trial, some fundamental questions remain unanswered. Did…