It was a great honor to share the central themes of my book Fatal Certainty with such an accomplished group of practitioners and academics, exactly the sort of people who can help to change the mindset driving quantitative (and even older-style non-quantitative) single-point forecasting, and it’s even a greater honor that they have taken their own stab at dramatizing some of the ideas I raised. Thanks to the Institute for the Study of Business Markets at the Smeal College of Business at Pennsylvania State University, and everyone who helped to organize this conference!
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Presentation to the Institute for the Study of Business Markets, Pennsylvania State University
I gave this talk a few months ago, and it captures a lot of my shtick on “fatal certainty,” “the cult of prediction,” and the importance of rigorous imagination in strategic decision-making. Enjoy… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxzth2cJICQ

SCA 10: New Year’s Thoughts on the Metastasization of the Cult of Prediction
This is going to be a long one, even by my standards. (I started it last year and finished it this year.) It’s focused on the relentless advances of the Cult of Prediction on every front. Even when it “loses,” it swallows more media time and attention and eyeballs and…

“Oppenheimer” and the Real Miracle of the Nuclear Age
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