Skip to content
Patrick Marren
Patrick Marren

Author

  • Fatal Certainty – Coming Soon
  • Fatal Certainty – The Thesis
  • Blog
  • Biography – Patrick B. Marren
  • Contact & Links
  • Patrick Marren Video Clips
Patrick Marren

Author

ISBM article on my ideas about the “Cult of Prediction”

admin, June 8, 2024June 8, 2024

It was a great honor to share the central themes of my book Fatal Certainty with such an accomplished group of practitioners and academics, exactly the sort of people who can help to change the mindset driving quantitative (and even older-style non-quantitative) single-point forecasting, and it’s even a greater honor that they have taken their own stab at dramatizing some of the ideas I raised. Thanks to the Institute for the Study of Business Markets at the Smeal College of Business at Pennsylvania State University, and everyone who helped to organize this conference!

Algorithms Forecasting Intersubjective Realities Rigorous Imagination The Cult of Prediction

Post navigation

Previous post
Next post

Related Posts

Forecasting person dropping paper on box

SCA 7: A Steelman Defense of Nate Silver

September 20, 2024September 20, 2024

A lot of what I have said in the past few weeks may give you the idea that I think Nate Silver is a fraud, or at best a non-serious person. Neither of those things is true.  I recently have had, let us say, some of my fellow-traveling partisans tell…

Read More
Forecasting woman writing formula on whiteboard

Predict the Predictable, Anticipate the Unpredictable 

September 6, 2023September 6, 2023

September 6, 2023  Much of what I write here may seem to disparage all prediction. If that is the case, I need to clarify a few points. Prediction is a very useful and necessary endeavor – when it is applied to predictable things.  Indeed, the scientific revolution, ever since the…

Read More
Forecasting The Forecasting Stone

The Economist Succumbs to the Cult of Prediction…Again

November 14, 2023November 14, 2023

The Economist’s annual preview of the coming year once again includes predictions. And that is a problem. To show you why it was a problem for 2023, let me share some slides I presented recently to the Intelligence Leadership Forum. The tl;dr version: Things that can be predicted with certainty are almost never strategic;…

Read More
©2026 Patrick Marren | WordPress Theme by SuperbThemes