I gave this talk a few months ago, and it captures a lot of my shtick on “fatal certainty,” “the cult of prediction,” and the importance of rigorous imagination in strategic decision-making. Enjoy…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxzth2cJICQ
October 2, 2023 Another avenue into the big truth expressed by Fatal Certainty: How a Cult of Prediction Made the Twenty-First Century an Era of Strategic Shock – and How Rigorous Imagination Could Bring Us Back comes from ancient approaches to dealing with fundamental, irreducible uncertainty. Decisions need to be made. This…
September 29, 2023 I have a surefire method of determining when I have a great idea. It’s when I find it shedding light on all sorts of unexpected phenomena. Today the phenomenon in question is conspiracy theories, and why they are (almost) always wrong. (I add the parenthesis merely to…
October 10, 2023 Applying the principles of Fatal Certainty to current affairsThe sudden, obviously long-planned attack by Hamas forces across the border of Gaza with Israel has the entire world’s attention. President Joe Biden has promised that the United States’ support for Israel is “rock-solid.” Republicans in Congress blame the attack on…