I gave this talk a few months ago, and it captures a lot of my shtick on “fatal certainty,” “the cult of prediction,” and the importance of rigorous imagination in strategic decision-making. Enjoy…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxzth2cJICQ
November 7, 2023 Nate Silver, the other day, tweeted (or “Xed?”) that the Democratic Party should be very very worried. “You have the whole electorate basically screaming ‘BIDEN’S TOO OLD.’ There’s a year’s worth of campaign to go, very likely some reversion to the fundamentals, Trump’s legal issues probably a larger liability…
July 31, 2023 The Christopher Nolan film “Oppenheimer” is all over the headlines this summer (along with the film “Barbie,” directed by Greta Gerwig). Having just watched it, as a professional scenario planner and “futurist” (whatever that might mean), I have thoughts. The main thought is my amazement that we…
October 10, 2023 Applying the principles of Fatal Certainty to current affairsThe sudden, obviously long-planned attack by Hamas forces across the border of Gaza with Israel has the entire world’s attention. President Joe Biden has promised that the United States’ support for Israel is “rock-solid.” Republicans in Congress blame the attack on…