For a more general treatment of On the Edge, go here:
https://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/nate-silver-on-the-edge/
SCA 6: Review of Nate Silver’s On the Edge on the Futures Strategy Group Blog
Forecasting
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Letter to the Columnist: Effective Altruism
The New York Times’ Peter Coy is “a veteran business and economics columnist.” Today he sent a newsletter out that was headlined “Effective Altruism Is Flawed. But What’s the Alternative?” I have thoughts. Coy writes, Of course, if you’ve read anything I’ve written here, you may sense that “rigorous academic…
Forecasting
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Even Some “Scientific” Stuff Requires Alternative Scenarios: El Niño Edition
Every day brings more proof that the range of strategically critical phenomena that are utterly unable to be predicted is almost as vast as it was in the day of Brian Rua U’Cearbhain or the Oracle of Delphi. Today, the Washington Post shows us that even when the vast majority…