For a more general treatment of On the Edge, go here:
https://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/nate-silver-on-the-edge/
SCA 6: Review of Nate Silver’s On the Edge on the Futures Strategy Group Blog
Forecasting
Read More
Predict the Predictable, Anticipate the Unpredictable
September 6, 2023 Much of what I write here may seem to disparage all prediction. If that is the case, I need to clarify a few points. Prediction is a very useful and necessary endeavor – when it is applied to predictable things. Indeed, the scientific revolution, ever since the…
Algorithms
Read More
The Economics Profession: Still Mostly in Thrall to the Cult of Prediction (with honorable exceptions)
July 25, 2023 A week or so ago, the economist Paul Krugman put out a subscribers-only opinion piece entitled “Camps of economists fought grand theoretical battles, and all lost.” To his credit, he numbers himself among those who “lost” in these battles, which were over the likelihood of serious inflation…
Algorithms
Read More
Hate to Say We Told You So…
[Reposted with permission from the Futures Strategy Group website… a blog column that contains the germ of Fatal Certainty. https://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/strategy/scenarios/ ] November 16, 2016 A week ago, something happened that no one was prepared for – and I mean NO ONE. Donald Trump was elected president. When I say “no one,” I include…