For a more general treatment of On the Edge, go here:
https://www.futuresstrategygroup.com/nate-silver-on-the-edge/
SCA 6: Review of Nate Silver’s On the Edge on the Futures Strategy Group Blog
Forecasting
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Presentation to the Institute for the Study of Business Markets, Pennsylvania State University
I gave this talk a few months ago, and it captures a lot of my shtick on “fatal certainty,” “the cult of prediction,” and the importance of rigorous imagination in strategic decision-making. Enjoy… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oxzth2cJICQ
Forecasting
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Even Some “Scientific” Stuff Requires Alternative Scenarios: El Niño Edition
Every day brings more proof that the range of strategically critical phenomena that are utterly unable to be predicted is almost as vast as it was in the day of Brian Rua U’Cearbhain or the Oracle of Delphi. Today, the Washington Post shows us that even when the vast majority…
Forecasting
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Thinking, Fast, Slow… and Other
The psychologist Daniel Kahneman died March 27. He was one of the few thinkers who managed to influence thought in multiple fields, most notably psychology and economics, but also in international relations and many other spheres dependent on decision-making. In 2011, Kahneman published his book Thinking, Fast and Slow, to universal…