Every day brings more proof that the range of strategically critical phenomena that are utterly unable to be predicted is almost as vast as it was in the day of Brian Rua U’Cearbhain or the Oracle of Delphi.
Today, the Washington Post shows us that even when the vast majority of climate scientists agree on something – like the mechanism and the expected effects of El Niño – the actual stuff that happens to people as a result of the return of El Niño – the stuff happening to us expatriates down here in New Zealand, e.g. – is NOT what they predicted.
“The atmosphere doesn’t look like it historically has during other strong El Niños. Here’s why:
- “There’s an unusual blob of warmth in the western Pacific.…
- “There’s not much rising air over the eastern Pacific.…Usually during El Niño, warmer waters in the eastern Pacific heat the air above, inducing rising motion. That creates an area of low air pressure, showers and thunderstorms. The air, in turn, subsides over the Atlantic. But, at present, the area of ascent over the eastern Pacific is meager and diffuse. It’s probable that the western Pacific warm blob, which is out of place, is causing heating and rising motion there and, as what goes up must come down, some of the air is sinking in the eastern Pacific.”
What lay people want to know is, “What’s gonna happen?” And scientists simply cannot answer that question. Being honest, they venture a guess that the normal El Niño pattern will emerge later, causing a warm beginning to winter in the southern U.S., with a harsh later winter following. But, again, being honest, they use the word “may” a lot.
This is NOT to say that these people are charlatans, or engaged in some sort of elite conspiracy to extract a few more sweet ten-thousand-dollar scientific grants to bamboozle the public by contradicting those swell disinterested saintly oil-company and fracking scientists who are obviously only about the truth.
This is to say that science is about trial and ERROR. It literally REQUIRES error in order to work. But lay people – non-scientists – generally do not understand this. If climate scientists say, “El Niño is supposed to make your winters colder in the southern part of the U.S.,” and that does not happen as predicted (key word – PREDICTED), then lay people will tend to lose faith and trust in climatologists.
Or, since I’m trying to be consistent here, lay people MAY lose trust and faith in climatologists.
And so goeth the Cult of Prediction. Even when experts try to be honest, their audiences will hear a guarantee.
