Fatal Certainty:
How a Cult of Prediction Made the 21st Century an Era of Strategic Shock – and How Rigorous Imagination Could Bring Us Back
by
Patrick B. Marren
Principal, The Futures Strategy Group
Fatal Certainty is a book about some of the hottest topics in business and society today: prediction, uncertainty, the future, decision-making, strategy, artificial intelligence, even multiverses.
It is a book of big ideas, one above all: the futility of the “cult of prediction” in dealing with future uncertainty, and the need for a new approach to the fundamentally unpredictable.
Fatal Certainty will prove to be a worthy addition to the canon of bestsellers on uncertainty, probability, risk, decision science, and the future, and should be required reading for all those concerned about the continued vitality of our national, governmental, business, and societal institutions.
“A necessary book.” – Kevin McDermott, author of Paragraph 3: Conversations About Prepared Leadership in the Age of Perpetual Uncertainty — From the C-Suite to the Battlefield
[Photograph: Achill Island, County Mayo, Ireland, looking south from Keem Bay toward Clew Bay, site of the 1894 Victory disaster]